Gretchen Peters -- Seeds of terror: how heroin is bankrolling the Taliban and Al Qaeda
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A failed state and a successful drug trade.

Read this book and weep -- You may find other books about
Afghanistan that paint a picture that is as terrible.  But, Peters's
book will do more than most to help you understand how things could
get that way and why they might get worse.  Her explanation is that
it's the money and funding that makes the Taliban possible, and that
the money comes, in large part, from the drug trade and from
smuggling.

Peters explains Afghanistan by explaining the only successful
institution and structure that it has: the drug trade, specifically
poppy farming, opium production, drug smuggling, and the protection,
money transit and laundering, etc that go with the drug trade.

Some of the topics:

* How the drug trade has shaped the Afghanistan conflict.

* How drug money has enabled the Taliban to survive and succeed.

* A description of a drug kingpin and the network he runs.  It's an
  impressive and successful business.

* The money trail -- Where the money comes from and where it goes. 
  Especially important is who it funds and how they use those funds
  to maintain control.

* The U.S. policy in Afghanistan (if we have one) and why it is
  ineffective and failing.

* Some suggestions about how to do things right.

It's all too easy to jump to the what-to-do section.  But, it's
important to understand why Afghanistan is such a hard problem and
why there is no easy solution.  Peters is good at explaining what
makes it so difficult to "fix" Afghanistan -- Some reasons:

* Poppy farming is the traditional crop and a way of life there.
  There are no or few alternatives.

* The poppy production and drug smuggling networks are very advanced
  and well-organized.  It's the only thing that works in
  Afghanistan.

* It's a failed state. The central government does not have control;
  the police force is corrupt; there is no judiciary that has
  the respect of the people.  There is a war going on, and there is
  little security and safety.

* The profits from drugs are huge.  Whenever there is lots of money,
  that attracts those who exploit it. And, since there is no or
  little police control, those who exploit it turn out to be
  criminals and terrorists.

The prescription that Peters emphasizes most is: Go after the
funding.  That funding is what saved the Taliban and what enables
them to survive and succeed.  Her second order prescription is that
an alternative way of making a living must be provided for Afghan
farmers currently growing poppies.  And, underlying that and
necessary to make any program possible is that there must be good
governance and security, which requires: (1) a successful central
government that has control within its borders and can provide
security; (2) a reasonably honest police force; and (3) a judiciary
that has enough respect from the people so that it promotes
law-abiding behavior.  With that as a base, the following steps
would attack the drug production, smuggling, and money at make the
Taliban possible.

* Arrest or kill drug kingpins and the mid-level smugglers in the
  drug trade.
  
* Target the chemists and the drug labs that cook opium into
  heroin.
  
* Target and bomb drug convoys going to the borders of Pakistan and
  Iran.

And, here are Peters's prescriptions, what she calls the nine pillars
of a complete strategy:

1. Bring peace to the region -- No people can succeed in the midst
   of constant war.
   
2. Conduct an effective counterinsurgency strategy -- The Taliban
   has been able to succeed even in inhospitable conditions; without
   pressure it will thrive.
   
3. Blend intelligence and law enforcement.
   
4. Conduct military strike against drug lords, heroin labs, and opium
   convoys.
   
5. Create a farm support network -- Farmer who are currently growing
   poppies will need support to resist pressure from the drug network
   and the Taliban in particular who are earning a living by taxing the
   poppy production of those farmers.
   
6. Run an effective public relations campaign against the Taliban.
   
7. Disrupt the flow of drug and terror funds.
   
8. Provide alternative ways to earn a living to those currently farming
   poppies.
   
9. Do poppy crop eradication *only* when all else fails.

Discussing or planning a strategy in Afghanistan without learning
the lessons in this book would be a serious mistake.

08/14/2010

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