Nate Silver -- The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
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Silver promises to tell us how we know what we know in the way of
quantitative and statistical knowledge.

"The Signal and the Noise" is about a slightly different kind of
"knowledge than we are used to.  It's about claims of prediction in
situations that are inherently unpredictable.  If you've read
"Antifragile" by Nicholas Taleb, then you've been warned about that.

"The Signal and the Noise" is about probability, about frequency of
an event, and about prediction.  It's not about what I *know* to be
true.  It's about what is likely and about how likely it is.  It's
importantly about helping us to determine *when* we know enough to
be able to say that something is probable, and about how to know
when we do not know enough.

05/30/2014

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