## ----setup, include=FALSE----------------------------------------------------- knitr::opts_chunk$set( collapse = TRUE, comment = "#>", fig.width = 7, fig.height = 5 ) library(compositional.mle) set.seed(42) ## ----exponential-setup-------------------------------------------------------- # Generate data n <- 100 true_rate <- 2.5 x_exp <- rexp(n, rate = true_rate) # Define the problem problem_exp <- mle_problem( loglike = function(lambda) { if (lambda <= 0) return(-Inf) n * log(lambda) - lambda * sum(x_exp) }, score = function(lambda) n / lambda - sum(x_exp), constraint = mle_constraint( support = function(lambda) lambda > 0, project = function(lambda) max(lambda, 1e-8) ) ) # Solve result_exp <- gradient_ascent(max_iter = 50)(problem_exp, theta0 = 1) # Compare with analytical MLE: 1/mean(x) mle_analytical <- 1 / mean(x_exp) cat("Numerical MLE: ", round(result_exp$theta.hat, 4), "\n") cat("Analytical MLE: ", round(mle_analytical, 4), "\n") cat("True rate: ", true_rate, "\n") ## ----exponential-plot--------------------------------------------------------- lambda_grid <- seq(0.1, 5, length.out = 100) ll_values <- sapply(lambda_grid, problem_exp$loglike) plot(lambda_grid, ll_values, type = "l", lwd = 2, xlab = expression(lambda), ylab = "Log-likelihood", main = "Exponential Distribution Log-Likelihood") abline(v = result_exp$theta.hat, col = "red", lwd = 2, lty = 2) abline(v = true_rate, col = "blue", lwd = 2, lty = 3) legend("topright", c("MLE", "True"), col = c("red", "blue"), lty = c(2, 3), lwd = 2) ## ----gamma-setup-------------------------------------------------------------- # Generate data true_shape <- 3 true_rate <- 2 x_gamma <- rgamma(200, shape = true_shape, rate = true_rate) # Define the problem problem_gamma <- mle_problem( loglike = function(theta) { alpha <- theta[1]; beta <- theta[2] if (alpha <= 0 || beta <= 0) return(-Inf) n <- length(x_gamma) n * (alpha * log(beta) - lgamma(alpha)) + (alpha - 1) * sum(log(x_gamma)) - beta * sum(x_gamma) }, score = function(theta) { alpha <- theta[1]; beta <- theta[2] n <- length(x_gamma) c(n * (log(beta) - digamma(alpha)) + sum(log(x_gamma)), n * alpha / beta - sum(x_gamma)) }, constraint = mle_constraint( support = function(theta) all(theta > 0), project = function(theta) pmax(theta, 1e-6) ), theta_names = c("alpha", "beta") ) ## ----gamma-fit---------------------------------------------------------------- # Coarse-to-fine strategy strategy <- grid_search(lower = c(0.5, 0.5), upper = c(10, 10), n = 10) %>>% gradient_ascent(max_iter = 100) result_gamma <- strategy(problem_gamma, theta0 = c(1, 1)) cat("MLE: shape =", round(result_gamma$theta.hat[1], 4), " rate =", round(result_gamma$theta.hat[2], 4), "\n") cat("True: shape =", true_shape, " rate =", true_rate, "\n") ## ----gamma-contour------------------------------------------------------------ alpha_grid <- seq(1, 6, length.out = 50) beta_grid <- seq(0.5, 4, length.out = 50) ll_gamma <- outer(alpha_grid, beta_grid, function(a, b) { mapply(function(ai, bi) problem_gamma$loglike(c(ai, bi)), a, b) }) contour(alpha_grid, beta_grid, ll_gamma, nlevels = 20, xlab = expression(alpha ~ "(shape)"), ylab = expression(beta ~ "(rate)"), main = "Gamma Distribution Log-Likelihood") points(result_gamma$theta.hat[1], result_gamma$theta.hat[2], pch = 19, col = "red", cex = 1.5) points(true_shape, true_rate, pch = 4, col = "blue", cex = 1.5, lwd = 2) legend("topright", c("MLE", "True"), pch = c(19, 4), col = c("red", "blue")) ## ----beta-setup--------------------------------------------------------------- # Generate data true_alpha <- 2 true_beta <- 5 x_beta <- rbeta(150, shape1 = true_alpha, shape2 = true_beta) # Define the problem problem_beta <- mle_problem( loglike = function(theta) { a <- theta[1]; b <- theta[2] if (a <= 0 || b <= 0) return(-Inf) n <- length(x_beta) n * (lgamma(a + b) - lgamma(a) - lgamma(b)) + (a - 1) * sum(log(x_beta)) + (b - 1) * sum(log(1 - x_beta)) }, score = function(theta) { a <- theta[1]; b <- theta[2] n <- length(x_beta) psi_ab <- digamma(a + b) c(n * (psi_ab - digamma(a)) + sum(log(x_beta)), n * (psi_ab - digamma(b)) + sum(log(1 - x_beta))) }, constraint = mle_constraint( support = function(theta) all(theta > 0), project = function(theta) pmax(theta, 1e-6) ) ) # Method of moments for starting values m <- mean(x_beta); v <- var(x_beta) alpha_start <- m * (m * (1 - m) / v - 1) beta_start <- (1 - m) * (m * (1 - m) / v - 1) result_beta <- gradient_ascent(max_iter = 200)( problem_beta, theta0 = c(max(alpha_start, 0.5), max(beta_start, 0.5)) ) cat("MLE: alpha =", round(result_beta$theta.hat[1], 4), " beta =", round(result_beta$theta.hat[2], 4), "\n") cat("True: alpha =", true_alpha, " beta =", true_beta, "\n") ## ----beta-check--------------------------------------------------------------- hist(x_beta, breaks = 20, freq = FALSE, col = "lightgray", main = "Beta Distribution Fit", xlab = "x") curve(dbeta(x, result_beta$theta.hat[1], result_beta$theta.hat[2]), add = TRUE, col = "red", lwd = 2) curve(dbeta(x, true_alpha, true_beta), add = TRUE, col = "blue", lwd = 2, lty = 2) legend("topright", c("Fitted", "True"), col = c("red", "blue"), lwd = 2, lty = c(1, 2)) ## ----weibull-setup------------------------------------------------------------ # Generate data true_k <- 2; true_lambda <- 3 x_weibull <- rweibull(100, shape = true_k, scale = true_lambda) # Define the problem (score only, Fisher computed numerically) problem_weibull <- mle_problem( loglike = function(theta) { k <- theta[1]; lambda <- theta[2] if (k <= 0 || lambda <= 0) return(-Inf) n <- length(x_weibull) n * log(k) - n * k * log(lambda) + (k - 1) * sum(log(x_weibull)) - sum((x_weibull / lambda)^k) }, score = function(theta) { k <- theta[1]; lambda <- theta[2] n <- length(x_weibull) x_scaled <- x_weibull / lambda x_scaled_k <- x_scaled^k c(n / k - n * log(lambda) + sum(log(x_weibull)) - sum(x_scaled_k * log(x_scaled)), -n * k / lambda + k * sum(x_scaled_k) / lambda) }, constraint = mle_constraint( support = function(theta) all(theta > 0), project = function(theta) pmax(theta, 1e-6) ) ) # Newton-Raphson with numerical Fisher result_weibull <- newton_raphson(max_iter = 50)(problem_weibull, theta0 = c(1, 1)) cat("MLE: shape =", round(result_weibull$theta.hat[1], 4), " scale =", round(result_weibull$theta.hat[2], 4), "\n") cat("True: shape =", true_k, " scale =", true_lambda, "\n") ## ----weibull-plot------------------------------------------------------------- hist(x_weibull, breaks = 15, freq = FALSE, col = "lightgray", main = "Weibull Distribution Fit", xlab = "x") curve(dweibull(x, shape = result_weibull$theta.hat[1], scale = result_weibull$theta.hat[2]), add = TRUE, col = "red", lwd = 2) curve(dweibull(x, shape = true_k, scale = true_lambda), add = TRUE, col = "blue", lwd = 2, lty = 2) legend("topright", c("Fitted", "True"), col = c("red", "blue"), lwd = 2, lty = c(1, 2)) ## ----mixture-setup------------------------------------------------------------ # Generate mixture data n1 <- 60; n2 <- 40 x_mix <- c(rnorm(n1, mean = 0, sd = 1), rnorm(n2, mean = 4, sd = 1.5)) # Parameters: (mu1, sigma1, mu2, sigma2, pi) problem_mix <- mle_problem( loglike = function(theta) { mu1 <- theta[1]; s1 <- theta[2] mu2 <- theta[3]; s2 <- theta[4] pi1 <- theta[5] if (s1 <= 0 || s2 <= 0 || pi1 <= 0 || pi1 >= 1) return(-Inf) # Log-sum-exp for numerical stability log_p1 <- log(pi1) + dnorm(x_mix, mu1, s1, log = TRUE) log_p2 <- log(1 - pi1) + dnorm(x_mix, mu2, s2, log = TRUE) log_max <- pmax(log_p1, log_p2) sum(log_max + log(exp(log_p1 - log_max) + exp(log_p2 - log_max))) }, constraint = mle_constraint( support = function(theta) theta[2] > 0 && theta[4] > 0 && theta[5] > 0 && theta[5] < 1, project = function(theta) c(theta[1], max(theta[2], 0.1), theta[3], max(theta[4], 0.1), min(max(theta[5], 0.01), 0.99)) ) ) # Use k-means for initialization km <- kmeans(x_mix, centers = 2) mu1_init <- min(km$centers); mu2_init <- max(km$centers) s1_init <- sd(x_mix[km$cluster == which.min(km$centers)]) s2_init <- sd(x_mix[km$cluster == which.max(km$centers)]) pi_init <- mean(km$cluster == which.min(km$centers)) result_mix <- gradient_ascent(learning_rate = 0.5, max_iter = 300)( problem_mix, theta0 = c(mu1_init, s1_init, mu2_init, s2_init, pi_init) ) cat("Fitted:\n") cat(" Component 1: mu =", round(result_mix$theta.hat[1], 2), " sigma =", round(result_mix$theta.hat[2], 2), "\n") cat(" Component 2: mu =", round(result_mix$theta.hat[3], 2), " sigma =", round(result_mix$theta.hat[4], 2), "\n") cat(" Mixing proportion:", round(result_mix$theta.hat[5], 2), "\n") ## ----mixture-plot------------------------------------------------------------- hist(x_mix, breaks = 25, freq = FALSE, col = "lightgray", main = "Gaussian Mixture Fit", xlab = "x") x_seq <- seq(min(x_mix) - 1, max(x_mix) + 1, length.out = 200) fitted_density <- result_mix$theta.hat[5] * dnorm(x_seq, result_mix$theta.hat[1], result_mix$theta.hat[2]) + (1 - result_mix$theta.hat[5]) * dnorm(x_seq, result_mix$theta.hat[3], result_mix$theta.hat[4]) lines(x_seq, fitted_density, col = "red", lwd = 2) true_density <- (n1/(n1+n2)) * dnorm(x_seq, 0, 1) + (n2/(n1+n2)) * dnorm(x_seq, 4, 1.5) lines(x_seq, true_density, col = "blue", lwd = 2, lty = 2) legend("topright", c("Fitted", "True"), col = c("red", "blue"), lwd = 2, lty = c(1, 2))